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Arsenal ought to be the team to win the league. They probably possess the strongest and deepest squad in the division and have settled on a style of play that brings results. No other side appears to match them on that front.

They may continue to draw widespread criticism for the way they play, although I suspect familiarity will make that approach less effective over time, but there is little reason for them to be bothered by outside opinion. Supporters are still turning up in numbers. That means the expectation and pressure sit squarely with them, and I expect them to struggle to handle it.

It is often claimed that retaining a title is notoriously difficult, but history shows it is far from rare. A top-flight club has successfully defended its crown 27 times across 12 different clubs, and in the Premier League era the title has been retained 11 times by three clubs: Manchester United, Chelsea and Manchester City.

So, in theory, there should be nothing stopping Arsenal. Except their mentality and Michael Carrick.

In the second half of last season, Manchester United had a better record than Arsenal, and they beat the Gunners 3-2. They collected more points than any other side and won more matches than anyone else. Put simply, they were better than everybody else. That feels hugely undervalued.

For whatever reason, that superior run has largely gone unnoticed. Manchester United took 39 points from a possible 51 under Carrick, which was three more than Arsenal over exactly the same stretch. Why is last season’s most successful manager in the league being underrated? The excuse that this happened only because United were playing once a week has been made to do a lot of work, as though being the best-performing team somehow becomes easy under those conditions. Based on the facts available, Carrick is clearly the best manager in the Premier League.

It is easy to be cynical about United. Off the pitch, they have become synonymous with poor decision-making, led by the ridiculous and ineffective Sir Jim Radcliffe, while on the pitch they have often looked directionless. Perhaps the entirely irrelevant spell of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has unfairly left a shadow over Carrick as well. Without doubt, no one expects United to win it this year. There is no pressure on them to do so, and that could work to their advantage.

Maybe part of it is also that Carrick is softly spoken, measured, fairly self-effacing and emotionally rational. In the hostile arena of social media, those traits tend to attract abuse rather than admiration. I do wonder whether his personality leads some people to think he is not up to the task, or whether they simply do not want to accept it because it clashes with their idea of what success is supposed to look like.

That excellent second half of last season is why I am backing Manchester United to win the league. This is based on hard evidence: United were better than Arsenal and were certainly easier on the eye. As for Chelsea or anyone else, who knows how effective they will be? You cannot say with certainty. What we do know is that Carrick delivered the best results in the league.

Arsenal may have the best and deepest squad, but the evidence so far suggests Carrick and his players have the stronger mentality. At Middlesbrough, Carrick built a reputation for being composed and understated, and he earned praise for his man-management. He was also credited for the development of players such as Chuba Akpom, who went from a fringe figure to the Championship Player of the Year while scoring 28 league goals. That is not insignificant.

Morgan Rogers, Emmanuel Latte Lath and Hayden Hackney were all developed under Carrick. Yes, like many managers, he was eventually sacked for failing to secure promotion, but nothing since then suggests that the same calm approach and coaching strengths have not worked at United. Calmness and composure under pressure are certainly not qualities usually associated with Mikel Arteta, who at times appears so tense that he looks incapable of relaxing at all. With expectations and pressure increasing, that is unlikely to improve.

United do have flaws, and there are some glaring weaknesses that may still need to be addressed, but their poor attitude was the biggest problem, along with tactical inflexibility. Perhaps it did not require revolutionary tactical changes to fix, as some people keen to diminish Carrick’s ability are quick to argue, but nobody else managed it, did they? Several famous and highly regarded managers, the best money could buy, all failed. A happy dressing room is essential, and Carrick seems to have created one.

Their current financial restraint suggests lessons have been learned after squandering millions on unsuitable players. The whole idea of judging a transfer window as simply good or bad is rather foolish, not least because it ignores the quality already present in the squad. What about coaching those players and improving them, instead of trying to buy a shortcut with money, which some people seem to view as the only route to success?

Football was not always so superficially attached to this spend-heavy way of thinking. More broadly, it is part of the reason things are the way they are. And it has been shown time and again not to work, as United themselves have often found out.

That said, much like you, I have a proud record of being hopelessly wrong with predictions. So while the case I have made feels logical and rooted in facts, it is entirely possible that I am completely mistaken. That is one prediction I feel sure about.