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Arsenal keep finding ways to shock and surprise in the transfer market, but they still refuse to make the most obvious move.

There is a difference between pinching players from direct rivals and weakening teams in mid-table. Sir Alex Ferguson was an expert at it, especially in attack. Across 13 Premier League title-winning seasons, Manchester United dropped below 70 goals only four times, with Ferguson repeatedly refreshing his forward line through a clear formula.

This was before xG became part of the football vocabulary, and the strategy was simple enough every season: sign the best forwards from mid-table sides who are ready to step up, and pay over the odds if that is what it takes.

Dwight Yorke. Teddy Sheringham. Louis Saha. Dimitar Berbatov. Alan Smith. Even Robin van Persie, if you want to stretch the definition a little. When Cristiano Ronaldo left in 2009, he was replaced by Antonio Valencia and Michael Owen. Ferguson still managed to get 80-plus goals.

And sometimes football really is that simple. Goals win matches, and the Premier League is not an easy league to adapt to. Your title rivals are not going to sell you their best players, but clubs a little lower in the table often will if you meet their valuation. Taking a gamble on a striker from abroad can leave you with either a Diego Forlan or a Ruud van Nistelrooy, a David Bellion or an Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. With full respect to data specialists, scouts, analysts and numbers people, everyone can look at Eric Cantona and make a fair judgement about how he might perform just an hour down the road.

Arsenal last made that kind of signing in 2023, and even then he was not the first choice. After the Gunners were beaten to Mykhailo Mudryk at the 11th hour, they reacted swiftly by signing Leandro Trossard for less than £25 million. For the Ukrainian, it was a real sliding doors moment, if ever there was one, but surely not even the biggest optimist could have predicted just how well Trossard's move would work out.

The Belgian needed no settling-in period. He found the net within weeks, immediately revitalised Mikel Arteta's attack and has since gone on to become — hopefully it is not too early to say this, considering what he has done — a club legend. Yet Arsenal have not repeated that type of signing since.

Not once in the last three years have Arsenal signed a league-leading attacker from a club outside the so-called big six, and in truth they had barely done it in the decade before that either. Jamie Vardy famously rejected them after winning the title with Leicester City. The Gunners chose Nicolas Pepe instead of Wilfried Zaha. Chelsea were willing to let Kai Havertz go, and it would be hard to describe them as mid-table anyway, so that was not quite the same category. The same applies to Noni Madueke, and in any case, were either of them genuinely setting the league alight before joining Arsenal?

Not really. Riyad Mahrez appeared to have eyes only for Manchester City, but Antoine Semenyo was available. Around £60 million looked a hefty fee at the time for a player Arsenal did not desperately need, but one they would surely love to have now. Anthony Gordon was valued at roughly £40 million when Newcastle United took him from Everton, and this summer he is worth a little under double that. Arsenal had strong interest, but passed on both occasions.

Arsenal were never seriously in the running for Matheus Cunha or Bryan Mbeumo. They did not move for Pedro Neto, despite having wanted him at one stage. They did not sign Ivan Toney when the opportunity was there, or even Ollie Watkins. They were not interested in Alexander Isak last summer. Fair enough, these types of deals do not always become major successes, but Arsenal were also missing from the conversation around Richarlison and Dominic Solanke.

That is odd, because Arsenal have shown they are perfectly willing to overpay in midfield. Their bidding for Bruno Guimaraes began well below the £75 million he eventually cost. There seemed to be hesitation over paying the roughly £60 million required for Eberechi Eze, before Tottenham Hotspur forced Arsenal into action. Board member Josh Kroenke has admitted that Declan Rice cost more than he had expected.

The last of those, though, now surely looks a bargain even at £105 million. Like most clubs, Arsenal have their own valuations for players, but is there really much point in trying to hold back inflation like King Cnut, or are they only harming themselves in the process?

There appears to be a reluctance to buy a Rice, a Bruno or an Eze equivalent to strengthen the attack. Looking ahead to the rest of this transfer window, and perhaps the next couple as well, will Arsenal now push harder for Junior Kroupi? Morgan Rogers was said to be the big target this summer, but reports suggested they were unwilling to pay beyond their limit. Rayan at Bournemouth could develop into a top-class attacker. Nick Woltemade would also make a certain amount of sense. For whatever reason, there is a sense that Arsenal are more likely to sign a cast-off from the big six, such as Cody Gakpo, Omar Marmoush or Nicolas Jackson.

Despite the number of Premier League-proven attackers available during Arteta's time, Arsenal have often tried to be cleverer than the market in forward areas. Gabriel Jesus was not especially wanted elsewhere. Gabriel Martinelli arrived for relatively little money and could be shaped into the player they wanted. Raheem Sterling was a low-cost loan with very little downside. Madueke offered potential. Former Brighton player Viktor Gyokeres was viewed as better value than Benjamin Sesko.

Of course, for all the names mentioned, Christos Tzolis may yet prove to be the signing of the season. Two assists in the Community Shield from a player who already looks like a Trossard regeneration, signed for under £40 million: honestly, nobody will care that Arsenal did not sign Rogers if the Greek keeps going at even half the speed he has started with. Sometimes it is exactly those sorts of transfers — the overlooked gem from abroad who can produce double figures straight away — that make all the difference.

And not every club can pull those off. That, no doubt, would be Arsenal's answer to all of this: not everyone can sign a Mohamed Salah. Otherwise, everyone would have a Mohamed Salah.

But where is their Sadio Mane?

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