US intelligence had warned Donald Trump before the Iran war that strikes could trigger a harder-line regime, retaliation against US forces, closure of the Strait of Hormuz and military resource shortages. Despite the warnings, Trump proceeded. Six months on, the war remains unresolved, has drained US resources and is hurting his political standing.
The US intelligence community had reportedly anticipated how the Middle East conflict could unfold even before President Donald Trump authorised the initial missile strikes in February. According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, then-intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard warned Trump days before he endorsed Israel’s war objectives that US assessments indicated eliminating Iran’s supreme leader could pave the way for a more hard-line government willing to pursue nuclear weapons.
The report said Gabbard presented intelligence assessments cautioning that a US-Israeli military escalation could prompt Iran, which was already at one of its weakest points in decades, to shut the Strait of Hormuz, potentially sending shockwaves through global energy markets.
She also warned that Tehran could retaliate by targeting US troops and regional partners, potentially testing Washington’s commitment to its allies and raising doubts over American reliability.
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