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September has become the crucial month for India's 2026 southwest monsoon, with the country heading into the final stretch of the June-September season with cumulative rainfall 13 per cent below the benchmark.

The shortfall comes after a particularly weak June and a loss of momentum in August. If rainfall remains below 90 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) for the full season, 2026 would be classified as a 'deficient' monsoon by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The season's performance is also being closely watched against the backdrop of strengthening El Niño conditions.

How Much Rain Has India Received So Far?

The monsoon's performance has varied sharply from month to month.

June recorded rainfall 36 per cent below the benchmark. Conditions improved in July, when rainfall was 1 per cent above the LPA, helping kharif sowing gain pace, reported The Financial Express.

The recovery did not last, however. Rainfall in August has so far been 14 per cent below the benchmark, leaving the season with a cumulative deficit of 13 per cent.

Central India Holds Up, Other Regions Face Shortfalls

The national rainfall figure does not reflect the wide differences across regions.

Central India, which is also known as the rainfed monsoon core zone, has been the best-performing region. Rainfall there is just 1.8 per cent below the benchmark and remains within the normal range.

The other three regions have recorded significantly larger deficits:

Northwest India: 10.6 per cent below benchmark
East and northeast India: 26.8 per cent below benchmark
South peninsular India: 22.1 per cent below benchmark

Among individual states, Bihar has recorded the largest shortfall at 42 per cent, followed by Andhra Pradesh at 39 per cent and Punjab at 34 per cent. Karnataka, Kerala and Rajasthan have recorded deficits of 22 per cent, 20 per cent and 21 per cent, respectively.

An official cited by Financial Express said the uneven distribution of rainfall could weigh on kharif crop yields. September rainfall will be particularly important for crops including pulses and oilseeds.

What Does The Rainfall Deficit Mean For Kharif Sowing?

Despite the uneven rains, most kharif sowing activity has already been completed.

The area under paddy, pulses, oilseeds, cotton, sugarcane and coarse cereals stood at 105.6 million hectares as of August 21, according to the data cited in the report. That was 1.5 per cent lower than the corresponding period last year.

ICRA expects total kharif sowing for 2026 to decline by 1-2 per cent year-on-year from 112.1 million hectares in 2025.

Sowing remains incomplete only in a few pockets of eastern India.

The bigger concern now is how rainfall in September affects crop yields, particularly in areas that have already received patchy precipitation.

El Niño Adds To Monsoon Uncertainty

The IMD has said the moderate El Niño conditions currently prevailing are expected to strengthen further during the southwest monsoon season.

This comes after the weather office had already lowered its forecast for the June-September rainfall season in May. Its projection was revised to 90 per cent of the LPA from the 92 per cent forecast issued in April, putting the season in the 'below-normal' category.

The Met Office had estimated an 84 per cent probability that rainfall for the season would remain in the 'deficient to below-normal' range.

What Counts As A Deficient Monsoon?

The IMD classifies seasonal rainfall using the LPA benchmark.

96-104% of LPA: Normal
90-95% of LPA: Below normal
Below 90% of LPA: Deficient
105-110% of LPA: Above normal

India has previously recorded deficient monsoons in 2002, 2009, 2014 and 2015. Rainfall during those seasons was 20.9 per cent, 18.3 per cent, 10.15 per cent and 12.7 per cent below the benchmark, respectively.

September Will Decide The Final Tally

With the monsoon season entering its final month, September rainfall will determine how much of the accumulated deficit can be recovered.

The current 13 per cent shortfall has already put the season on course for a deficient outcome if rainfall remains below the required threshold. At the same time, the uneven distribution of precipitation means the impact will vary considerably across regions and crops.

The final assessment of the 2026 monsoon will therefore depend not only on the amount of rain received in September, but also on where that rainfall is recorded.