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As the final tether on the world's largest atomic arsenals expires on February 5, India fears a nuclear-unconstrained China rapidly multiplying its warheads

Is a new global nuclear arms race looming?

On February 5, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) is on the verge of collapsing. This agreement is the final tether holding back the world’s two largest nuclear powers, the US and Russia, who together control 90% of the global atomic arsenal.

A dilemma for India

However, more than the US and Russia, from India's perspective, the sheer absence of a treaty—despite China not being a signatory—will give Beijing the perfect pretext to explosively multiply its nuclear arsenal.

There is also a possibility that Pakistan also might exploit the situation quietly seeking to expand its arsenal with the help of China.

This might lead to a situation where India feels pressured to expand its own arsenal.

The China factor

Recent Pentagon reports suggest that China is on track to possess 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030.

These assessments point to a significant expansion of China’s land-based strategic forces, specifically the deployment of DF-31 solid-fuelled ICBMs across approximately 100 new silos in the nation's northwest.

When combined with additional silos at older sites, researchers from the Federation of American Scientists estimate that China has added roughly 350 launchers to its arsenal, supplementing its existing fleet of 140 siloed and road-mobile missiles.

Investigations by the Washington Post last year, utilising imagery analysis from the Open Nuclear Network and the Verification Research, Training and Information Center, reveal that China has significantly expanded its nuclear infrastructure.

Specifically, a critical pit production and warhead assembly site at Pingtong in the Sichuan province has undergone extensive renovation over the past several years.

This physical expansion suggests a tangible shift in China's manufacturing capabilities, even as the nation maintains its public-facing diplomatic stance on disarmament.

Although the current arms control framework is strictly a bilateral agreement between Washington and Moscow, the rapid modernisation of China’s nuclear forces has added a volatile new dimension to the global security scenario.

According to a report in the Arms Control Association, while China's official white paper continues to advocate for the "complete prohibition and thorough destruction" of nuclear weapons, Beijing remains firm in its traditional policy regarding responsibility.

The Chinese government asserts that the United States and Russia, as the holders of the world’s largest nuclear stockpiles, bear a "special and primary" obligation to lead the way in reduction efforts.

This strategic framing has served as a long-standing justification for Beijing to avoid participating in substantive arms control negotiations while it continues to modernise its own strategic forces.

As of early 2026, the prospect of a "New START 2.0" is extremely low.

Despite a 2025 proposal from Moscow to informally observe limits for another year, the US has signalled a preference for a "better deal" that includes China—a move Beijing continues to reject.

What the New START did so far

By capping warheads and delivery systems, New START provides a critical layer of global stability.

However, it’s worth noting that while the treaty formally expires now, Russia officially "suspended" its participation in February 2023. While they claimed to stick to the numerical limits, the verification and inspection side of the treaty has been dead for nearly three years.

For over half a century—beginning with SALT I in 1972 after the Narrow escape of the Cuban Missile Crisis—Washington and Moscow have maintained a fragile nuclear order through successive treaties like START I and SORT.

Now, that 50-year legacy of restraint faces an uncertain future.

Signed in Prague in 2010 by then presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev, the New START Treaty officially took effect on February 5, 2011.

The agreement established a seven-year window for the United States and the Russian Federation to reduce their strategic offensive arms, requiring both nations to reach and maintain specific central limits by February 5, 2018. Both parties successfully met these requirements by the deadline and have remained within the mandated thresholds ever since.

The treaty dictates strict caps on the nuclear infrastructure of both superpowers. Specifically, it limits each nation to 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments.

Regarding actual warheads, the treaty allows for a maximum of 1,550 positioned across those deployed delivery systems, with each heavy bomber counted as a single warhead toward this total.

Finally, the agreement restricts the combined number of deployed and non-deployed launchers and bombers to a ceiling of 800, ensuring a comprehensive check on nuclear readiness.

What we are staring at

Fears are mounting that, in the absence of a formal treaty, the United States may move toward a strategy of overwhelming nuclear superiority, potentially reviving ambitious projects like the Golden Dome space-based missile defence system.

Simultaneously, the lack of oversight would remove any remaining obstacles for Russia to expand its high-tech arsenal, which includes the "Satan-2" next-generation ICBM, the Kinzhal long-range cruise missile, and the intermediate-range Oreshnik ballistic missile.

Initially established with a 10-year lifespan, the treaty was extended in 2021. But as of today, February 2, no further extension is legally possible under the original terms, and no successor agreement has been reached.