Bangladesh is set to hold elections this month, with the primary contest between the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami. While several parties are participating, analysts believe that only the BNP and Jamaat have a realistic chance of victory. The ban on the Awami League, following Sheikh Hasina's removal, has disheartened many of its supporters. Initially, they indicated plans to boycott the elections, but recent developments suggest otherwise.
The Jamaat-e-Islami has successfully cultivated a narrative positioning itself as staunchly opposed to the Awami League, asserting that those who support Sheikh Hasina's party are acting against national interests.
Awami League supporters now face a dilemma regarding their participation. The Jamaat has organized efforts to identify individuals who choose not to vote in the upcoming elections, labeling them as Awami League supporters, which raises concerns about potential targeting.
Both the Jamaat and BNP allege that their members have faced persecution under Sheikh Hasina's administration. The Jamaat was banned, and many of its members faced execution during her rule.
Numerous BNP leaders, including former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, were imprisoned during Hasina's tenure. Observers note that both parties are eager to reclaim their influence.
The Jamaat, in particular, aims to eliminate the Awami League entirely. Their campaign not only seeks votes but also serves as a warning to Awami League supporters against abstaining from the polls.
Initially, it was anticipated that Awami League supporters would refrain from voting; however, this perception has shifted. Experts now predict that they will turn out in significant numbers, primarily due to fears of persecution.
An official from the Intelligence Bureau indicated that the intimidation tactics employed by the Jamaat and others appear to be effective, leading many to conceal their support for the Awami League.
While the party has encountered similar challenges in the past, the current situation is distinct. Supporters are facing direct threats, indicating a concerted effort to eradicate the Awami League's presence.
Another official remarked that despite ongoing attempts to dismantle the party, its leaders are unlikely to surrender easily.
Numerous exiled leaders are strategizing a return. Thousands of party members fled Bangladesh following the upheaval that led to Hasina's ousting, with many currently residing in Kolkata, where they regularly convene to plan their comeback.
Additionally, they maintain communication with Sheikh Hasina, who is presently in New Delhi, and has been in contact with party members both in Bangladesh and Kolkata over the past weeks.
Experts assert that if the Awami League wishes to maintain its relevance, it must act swiftly.
The Jamaat and the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus are determined to eliminate the Awami League.
In the lead-up to the elections, members of Sheikh Hasina's party have been urging a boycott of the polls. However, analysts believe that a boycott is unlikely, as Awami League supporters fear being identified and targeted.
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