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Westminster is engulfed in turmoil as Sir Keir Starmer battles to stay First Minister - but the Mandelson-Epstein scandal threatens the future of the United Kingdom. Scottish First Minister John Swinney believes the "scandal is only starting, and the Westminster establishment hasn't even scratched the surface of the public's anger". The SNP leader will not miss a chance in the run-up to the May elections to tap into fury and make the case for a "fresh start with independence". Sir Keir - or whoever succeeds him - will, unless there is a revolution in the polls, soon face the challenge of leading a country where the leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland want to bring an end to the UK as it exists today.

The Labour establishment in Westminster faced a choice: Support Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar and tell Sir Keir it is time to go, or rally around a Prime Minister that polling shows most voters think should resign. The Cabinet chose the latter option and saved his political skin. The SNP will say this is proof that a Government dominated by English MPs does not listen to Scotland on this or any other issue. This is a wounding blow for Scotland's main unionist party.

Mr Sarwar has fought to rebuild support for Labour in Scotland since taking the helm in 2021. Labour had a one-point lead over the pro-independence party in May 2024, but support has collapsed since Sir Keir moved into Number 10. Despite anguish and upheaval in nationalist ranks, last month just 15% of Scots planned to vote for Labour in the constituency contest for the Scottish Parliament, with one in five intending to back Reform UK and 34% saying they will support the SNP.

The Mandelson-Epstein debacle is poisonous. It reinforces every suspicion that Westminster politics is dominated by a self-interested elite with a scrambled moral compass who are enraptured by wealth. The same is true in Wales and Northern Ireland.

Pro-independence Plaid Cymru is on course to bring Labour rule in Wales to an end for the first time since self-government began in 1999. Last month it had 37% support, ahead of Reform (23%) and the Greens (13%), with the Tories and Labour tied on a miserable 10% each. Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth this week declared that "of course Keir Starmer has to go," saying the PM has "lost all moral authority and the self awareness to do the right thing".

There is nothing like an attack from nationalists - or, it seems, colleagues in the same party from outside Westminster - to get Labour MPs to circle the wagons and defend an unpopular leader. Mr Swinney and Mr ap Iorwerth may, very privately, see an upside to Sir Keir staying in post if the May elections become a referendum on the future of a PM who made Mandelson US ambassador.

The chaos will also have an effect in Northern Ireland, where Sinn Fein First Minister Michelle O'Neill wants a referendum on the province joining the Republic of Ireland by 2030.

The union survived the upheavals of Brexit,and the Boris Johnson and Liz Truss eras. But the bonds which hold the UK together are fragile, and they are being battered by this storm of Sir Keir's making.