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New Delhi: The US Space Force has predicted on 9 March that NASA’s Van Allen probe A is expected to re-enter the atmosphere on 10 March 2026 at around 23:45 UTC with an uncertainty of a day. NASA expects most of the probe to burn up in the atmosphere, with some fragments expected to reach the Earth. The Van Allen Probes A and B were launched in 2012, on what was to be a two year mission. Both the spacecraft were operational till 2019, for five years beyond the planned mission duration, and repeatedly flew through the Vann Allen belts of the Earth, which are rings of charged particles trapped by the geomagnetic field of the Earth.

The probes enhanced the understanding of the Van Allen belts, which shield the Earth from cosmic radiation and protect the planet from solar outbursts. The twin probes found the first data indicating the presence of a temporary third belt, that appears during periods of intense solar activity. The Van Allen Probes were the first spacecraft designed specifically to observe the Van Allen Belts. NASA ended the mission in 2019 after the probes ran out of fuel. At that time, it was predicted that the twin probes would reenter the atmosphere of the Earth in 2034.

Solar Activity induced a reduction in altitude

The calculations in 2019 were made before the ongoing Solar Cycle 25, during which the Sun was far more active than expected. The injection of heat into the atmosphere during solar storms cause it to inflate, much like a hot-air balloon, increasing the drag on satellites and causing them to lower their altitudes. The solar storms in 2024 caused the Van Allen Probe A to reduce in altitude faster than predictions, resulting in a re-entry earlier than expected. The Van Allen Probe B is not expected to re-enter the atmosphere of the Earth before 2030.