Follow the arrow
Last week, the Union Cabinet approved India's updated nationally determined contributions (NDC) for 2031-35. Coming as it did after several missed self-imposed 'soft' deadlines, the response was of relief - followed by disappointment. Targets set by the 5th-largest economy do not compare well to its past ambition and record. Yet, if there is a fit case for not judging a book by its cover, India's NDC 3.0 is it.
New Delhi has stuck to the formula set out in the two earlier rounds - three quantified goals and five qualitative ones. Pledging to increase share of non-fossil fuels in the installed electricity generation capacity to 60% from the 2030 target of 50%, reducing emissions intensity of the economy by 47% from 2005 level - the current target is 45% - and increasing nature-based carbon sink to 3.5-4 bn tonnes over 2005 stocks from 2.5-3 bn tonnes by 2030.
At first pass, the targets appear to be modest, considering what has already been achieved. In February, non-fossil fuel sources accounted for 52% of installed capacity, reduced emissions intensity of the economy by 36% from 2005 levels by 2020, and created 2.3 bn tonnes of nature-based (forest and trees) carbon sink by 2021.
Look beyond the headline numbers and India's NDC 3.0 is significant for its timing. In announcing its NDCs at a time when the world is grappling with a major energy disruption, India telegraphed its continued commitment to multilateral endeavour to tackle climate change as encapsulated in the Paris Agreement, and UN Framework Convention. It's a commitment to move away from fossil fuels, the primary contributor to runaway global warming.
A clear message has been sent out to those who see climate action as unnecessary, green and clean energy as a hoax, and climate change as a long con. It also sends out a signal to those who doubted India's commitment to climate action and multilateralism. India has come to terms with its disappointment at Baku, and is ready to get off the bench. It won't shy away from owning up to actions it is taking and its commitments. It's a reiteration that tackling climate change requires collaboration and cooperation among all stakeholders.
Perhaps the long wait, peppered by glimpses from NITI Aayog's 'Viksit Bharat-Net Zero' scenarios, the CEA's generation adequacy report, doubling of nominal GDP in the past decade, and growth projection of above 6%, have raised expectations. India's RE journey over the last decade has been impressive. In 2025, India added nearly 50 GW of RE capacity of which solar accounted for about 39 GW. The big concern was about curtailment of RE capacity due to transmission adequacy and grid security.
According to energy think tank Ember, India lost 2.3 TWh of solar generation in the second half of 2025. Crisil Rating reports that as much as 35 GW of renewable capacity risks curtailment in FY27 because of grid inadequacy. Ensuring continued flow of investments in greening the electricity system will require investing in a grid fit for purpose - one that can handle integrated distributed energy resources, address cybersecurity concerns of an increasing digitalised system, and account for physical risk, be it from drones and hybrid warfare, or extreme heat, floods and drought due to climate change.
As a growing economy that is yet to peak its emissions, India has set an emissions intensity target, a pledge to have a smaller GHG footprint even as it develops. Efficiency in process and resource use will help. But without technological shifts and breakthroughs at scale and cost, the big gains may not be that easy. Battery storage technologies, green hydrogen and low-carbon biofuels are among the tech interventions that can accelerate the decarbonisation process.
The easy pickings are mostly done with. Hard work of bringing about policy and regulatory changes to accelerate electrification and decarbonisation, and to attract necessary investments, must be priority. India has always been a cautious player, promising only so much, as it knows it can deliver, preferring to overachieve than overpromise. NDC 3.0 targets may be modest. But it says loud and clear that India is back and open for business.
New Delhi has stuck to the formula set out in the two earlier rounds - three quantified goals and five qualitative ones. Pledging to increase share of non-fossil fuels in the installed electricity generation capacity to 60% from the 2030 target of 50%, reducing emissions intensity of the economy by 47% from 2005 level - the current target is 45% - and increasing nature-based carbon sink to 3.5-4 bn tonnes over 2005 stocks from 2.5-3 bn tonnes by 2030.
At first pass, the targets appear to be modest, considering what has already been achieved. In February, non-fossil fuel sources accounted for 52% of installed capacity, reduced emissions intensity of the economy by 36% from 2005 levels by 2020, and created 2.3 bn tonnes of nature-based (forest and trees) carbon sink by 2021.
Look beyond the headline numbers and India's NDC 3.0 is significant for its timing. In announcing its NDCs at a time when the world is grappling with a major energy disruption, India telegraphed its continued commitment to multilateral endeavour to tackle climate change as encapsulated in the Paris Agreement, and UN Framework Convention. It's a commitment to move away from fossil fuels, the primary contributor to runaway global warming.
A clear message has been sent out to those who see climate action as unnecessary, green and clean energy as a hoax, and climate change as a long con. It also sends out a signal to those who doubted India's commitment to climate action and multilateralism. India has come to terms with its disappointment at Baku, and is ready to get off the bench. It won't shy away from owning up to actions it is taking and its commitments. It's a reiteration that tackling climate change requires collaboration and cooperation among all stakeholders.
Perhaps the long wait, peppered by glimpses from NITI Aayog's 'Viksit Bharat-Net Zero' scenarios, the CEA's generation adequacy report, doubling of nominal GDP in the past decade, and growth projection of above 6%, have raised expectations. India's RE journey over the last decade has been impressive. In 2025, India added nearly 50 GW of RE capacity of which solar accounted for about 39 GW. The big concern was about curtailment of RE capacity due to transmission adequacy and grid security.
According to energy think tank Ember, India lost 2.3 TWh of solar generation in the second half of 2025. Crisil Rating reports that as much as 35 GW of renewable capacity risks curtailment in FY27 because of grid inadequacy. Ensuring continued flow of investments in greening the electricity system will require investing in a grid fit for purpose - one that can handle integrated distributed energy resources, address cybersecurity concerns of an increasing digitalised system, and account for physical risk, be it from drones and hybrid warfare, or extreme heat, floods and drought due to climate change.
As a growing economy that is yet to peak its emissions, India has set an emissions intensity target, a pledge to have a smaller GHG footprint even as it develops. Efficiency in process and resource use will help. But without technological shifts and breakthroughs at scale and cost, the big gains may not be that easy. Battery storage technologies, green hydrogen and low-carbon biofuels are among the tech interventions that can accelerate the decarbonisation process.
The easy pickings are mostly done with. Hard work of bringing about policy and regulatory changes to accelerate electrification and decarbonisation, and to attract necessary investments, must be priority. India has always been a cautious player, promising only so much, as it knows it can deliver, preferring to overachieve than overpromise. NDC 3.0 targets may be modest. But it says loud and clear that India is back and open for business.
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com.)
Urmi Goswami