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The Makerfield by-election is one of the most significant in modern British political history, with Reform UK holding a formidable advantage as Andy Burnham bids to return to Westminster, pollster Sir John Curtice has said. The leading elections expert warned that the numbers heavily favour Reform in a contest that could derail Mr Burnham's leadership ambitions and plunge Labour into fresh crisis.

Makerfield voted 66% Leave in the 2016 EU referendum. In the 2024 General Election, Reform captured 32% of the vote there, finishing second just 13 points behind Labour and making the seat the seventh most marginal Labour-Reform contest in the country. Reform overturned a 35-point Labour lead in Runcorn & Helsby in last year's by-election.

In last week's local elections, across wards wholly or mostly within the constituency, Reform surged to 50% while Labour collapsed to a dismal 23%.

Writing for GB News, Sir John, Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University, said: "Reform won every single council seat that was up for grabs. In truth, the party could hardly have hoped for a by-election to arise in so promising a seat as this."

Mr Burnham enters the fray with significant personal goodwill. He secured 63% in the recent Greater Manchester mayoral election - far exceeding Labour's general election performance both regionally and locally in Makerfield.

Sir John, Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University cautioned: "What remains uncertain is whether the personal vote Mr Burnham was able to reap for a mayoral position... will also appear in a contest in which the Labour Party and its record will be very much on the ballot paper."

A Reform victory would do far more than deliver another by-election gain. It would block Mr Burnham's path back to the Commons at a time when many Labour MPs believe he represents their best chance of improving the party's prospects at the next general election. For Nigel Farage's party, it would further stoke Labour's leadership turmoil and reinforce Reform's growing strength in traditional heartlands.

Sir John added: "Even so, Reform would be wise to field a strong candidate. Perhaps this would be an opportune time for the party's government efficiency chief, Zia Yusuf, or chair, Dr David Bull, to step up to the plate?"

Kemi Badenoch has already confirmed the Conservatives will not stand aside to help Reform, setting up a multi-party contest. However, the local election results suggest the real fight is between Reform and Labour.

Sir John concluded that a heavyweight Reform opponent would "certainly help ensure that Mr Burnham's political abilities are put to the toughest possible test".