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El Nino to intensify by September, warns IMD
15 Jun 2026

The El Nino weather phenomenon, which began over the Pacific Ocean earlier this month, is likely to intensify by the end of September.

Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), said that moderate El Nino conditions are expected during July and August, likely intensifying toward late September.

This phenomenon can impact global temperatures and rainfall patterns, affecting India's crucial monsoon rains.

Government's proactive measures for farmers
Protective actions

In light of the potential impact of El Nino on agriculture, the Indian government has already started taking steps to protect farmers.

The Centre has asked for special monitoring and quick action in states likely to receive low rainfall.

These states include Gujarat, Rajasthan, Odisha and central India where irrigation facilities are relatively less.

Potential economic impact
Areas of concern

The government is focusing on water management, soil moisture conservation, and alternative crop planning.

Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Minister for Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, assured that timely preparation is key.

However, economists warn El Nino could hurt food prices for oilseeds, pulses, and cotton which are less irrigated crops. They also say it could impact GDP growth.

Advances in weather forecasting
Forecasting advancements

Mohapatra also highlighted that the IMD has improved its weather forecasting technology and methodology significantly.

The long-range forecast error has reduced from 7.5% between 2016-2020 to 2.2% in 2021-2025.

This improvement ensures consistency in forecasts across different parts of India, allowing for timely warnings and quicker responses to potential weather-related challenges due to El Nino.