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Harry Kane enjoyed one of the finest individual seasons of his career with Bayern Munich, but England’s World Cup semifinal defeat to Argentina may have ended his hopes of winning the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

The England captain entered the tournament as one of the leading contenders for football’s biggest individual honor after another prolific campaign at club level. However, failing to reach the World Cup final has significantly weakened his chances.

In years when the World Cup is held, performances on football’s biggest international stage often play a decisive role in Ballon d’Or voting. England’s elimination in the semifinals, combined with Kane’s failure to score in his final two matches, leaves his campaign lacking the defining tournament moment that voters typically remember.

There were scenarios that could have kept Kane firmly in contention. Had Bayern Munich lifted the UEFA Champions League trophy, his remarkable club season might have been enough to offset England’s World Cup disappointment. Likewise, if no standout individual had emerged from the tournament, Kane’s consistency throughout the season could still have strengthened his case.

History offers similar examples. Luka Modrić won the 2018 Ballon d’Or after leading Real Madrid to Champions League glory and guiding Croatia to the World Cup final, despite finishing as runner-up. That combination of club and international success ultimately proved decisive.

England reaching the World Cup final would also have kept Kane firmly in the race. Even without winning the tournament, another strong performance on the biggest stage could have enhanced his credentials, especially if rival candidates failed to dominate the competition individually.

Instead, attention now shifts toward players from World Cup finalists Spain and Argentina, along with standout performers from Paris Saint-Germain, who are expected to feature prominently in the Ballon d’Or conversation. Lionel Messi also remains a strong contender after another influential World Cup campaign.

For Kane, the focus now turns back to Bayern Munich. While this year’s Ballon d’Or appears increasingly out of reach, another successful season—particularly one featuring a Champions League triumph—could put him back among the favorites for football’s highest individual honor.