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For Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll, the Belgian Grand Prix is more of a waiting game before they finally get to drive the much-anticipated upgraded Aston Martin AMR26 in Hungary next weekend. Adrian Newey decided to pursue a major overhaul soon after early pre-season tests exposed the car’s weak performance in its initial configuration, while Honda’s power unit also fell short of expectations.

Choosing to move away from Formula 1’s conventional strategy of gradual updates in favour of a comprehensive redesign was a bold call. However, considering the budget cap restrictions and the realisation that minor tweaks wouldn’t close the gap, it became a sensible plan. If everything arrives on schedule, the team will unveil a lighter car with a fresh aerodynamic concept in Budapest – the final race before the summer break.

Honda is set to introduce an updated power unit at Zandvoort, the first race after the season resumes in late August. Only then might the team’s true potential for the rest of 2026 become evident. Aston Martin hopes that the AMR26 can start competing for points once the full package is in place.

The performance gap to the competition remains significant, further widened by the lack of continual updates that other teams have implemented. At the previous race in Silverstone, even an improvement of two seconds would only have lifted Aston Martin above Cadillac to 10th place in the standings.

That’s a tough challenge, and it’s possible that there won’t be a dramatic leap up the grid. Still, even a solid improvement in lap times—if not in positions—would demonstrate the team’s capability to recover and signal that it is on the right path. This could also serve as a foundation for a stronger push in 2027.

“I think it’s difficult to put a number on the upgrade or an estimate,” Alonso shared on Thursday when asked by Road & Track about the new car’s potential. “Because we’ve had enough experience predicting performance gains that didn’t materialise. I think it’s more about proving that the team is heading in the right direction. Maybe the car’s philosophy wasn’t right, and we are changing that now. We are making different modifications, reducing the weight.”

Alonso added that the upgrades are as much about restoring belief as they are about performance.

“There’s been a lot of hard work from the factory to address the problems we noticed early in the year,” he explained. “More than just performance numbers, it’s about regaining trust in the direction we’re taking for next year as well. I think by next weekend, after the race, we’ll have a better understanding.”

Alonso remains cautious about aiming for points finishes, which would require competing with teams like Williams, Haas, Audi, Racing Bulls, and Alpine.

“We’re at the back right now, so if we manage to take a step forward and fight for points, that would be a huge achievement,” he said. “But we have to stay calm. There will be circuits, even with the upgraded car, where we won’t gain much—like Monza or similar tracks.”

The lack of engine performance, even with Honda’s revisions, will also remain a limiting factor.

“If we think about the upgraded car, it won’t make a massive difference because tracks with few corners rely heavily on available energy and efficiency, and we won’t improve much in that area. It’ll vary from circuit to circuit. When we have a good track or a strong weekend, we must make the most of that opportunity.”

It’s somewhat unfortunate that the final race with the current setup is at a circuit where energy deployment and aerodynamic efficiency are crucial, exposing the weaknesses of the Aston-Honda package.

“We’re still running the same car we had at the Bahrain test, while others have been upgrading,” Alonso admitted. “We started off slow, and each race we seem slower because everyone else is improving. So yes, we just need to get through this weekend and hopefully be better next weekend.”

Meanwhile, Stroll acknowledges that the new car’s potential “remains uncertain,” but he’s optimistic that the revised version will show progress.

“We can only go forward, so that’s a positive,” said the Canadian driver. “Right now, it’s been pretty bad. There’s nothing we like about our car—no strengths—so we can only improve. We’re hoping to fix some of the long-standing aero problems, add more downforce, and make the car healthier and nicer to drive.”

As mentioned, the team and Honda’s upgrade schedules are not aligned, meaning Budapest will see a new chassis paired with the old engine. Stroll pointed out that this mismatch will be less of a concern at that circuit, making it a good test of the new chassis’ progress.

“I think Hungary is a good benchmark,” he said. “It’s not a power-sensitive circuit; it’s more about the chassis. So that’s the key test. If we’re still slow in Hungary, then the new engine coming in Zandvoort won’t fix everything. It’s one of those tracks where you need downforce and balance. If we look more competitive there, it’ll be a positive sign for the rest of the season.”