Top News

The changed political stance of Samajwadi Party (SP) and its national president Akhilesh Yadav is currently the center of discussion across the country as the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections 2027 (UP Chunav 2027) approaches. Ever since Akhilesh Yadav took out the PDA (Backward, Dalit and Minority) Rath Yatra and gave a sharp and new slogan like ‘Socialist is the real Sanatan’, he has been dominating the political circles from Lucknow to Delhi.

This big question is arising in the minds of common people that what has happened that Akhilesh Yadav’s father Mulayam Singh Yadav was never angry at the tight and political labels like ‘Mullah Mulayam’ imposed on him, why today his son Akhilesh Yadav has come to the point of taking out Rath Yatras in the style of BJP and presenting himself as Hanuman devotee, Shankar devotee and Krishna devotee?

To properly understand this 360 degree change in the politics of Samajwadi Party and Akhilesh Yadav on the ground, we will have to delve into the real vote mathematics of Uttar Pradesh. Let us try to understand this entire political picture and its hidden truth in detail.

Uttar Pradesh’s election mathematics and number of voters

Recently, after the Election Commission completed the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the voter list in Uttar Pradesh, the entire vote counting of the state has become crystal clear.

• Hindu Voter: The total number of Hindu voters in Uttar Pradesh is more than 10 crores.
• Total Seats: There are a total of 403 seats in the UP Assembly, on which every party keeps an eye.
• Hindu majority seats: There are about 330 seats in the state where the Hindu population is more than 60 percent.
• Muslim dominated seats: There are about 70 seats where Muslim voters have the power to directly influence the election results and victory or defeat.

Transfer of Hindu votes between parties (2017 vs 2022)

If we look at the data of the last two assembly elections, we will know how much Hindu vote has been received by which party:

• Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): The party got 47% Hindu votes in the year 2017, which directly increased to 54% in 2022, i.e. a huge increase of 7% was recorded in it.
• Samajwadi Party (SP): SP got only 19% Hindu votes in the 2017 elections, which increased to 26% in 2022 (this also increased by 7%).
• Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP): This figure was worrying for BSP, which got 23% Hindu votes in 2017, but after a huge decline in 2022, it came down to just 14%.
• Congress: Congress got 4% Hindu votes in 2017, which came down to only 2% in 2022.

Polarization of Hindu votes based on Muslim population (2022 data)

Ground reality shows that as the percentage of Muslim population in an area increases, the Hindu votes consolidate in favor of the BJP and the share of the Hindu vote for the Samajwadi Party starts falling rapidly:

• Where Muslim population is less than 20%: In such areas, SP got 30% Hindu votes, while BJP got 51% Hindu votes.
• Where Muslim population is between 20 to 30%: In these areas, SP’s Hindu votes reduced to only 18%, while BJP’s graph increased directly to 59%.
• Where Muslim population is more than 40%: In these areas, SP was left with only 8% Hindu votes, while a record 69% Hindu votes went outright to BJP.

SP got Muslim votes on the basis of Muslim population

On the other hand, as the Muslim population increases in the areas, the dispersion of Muslim votes in favor of the Samajwadi Party stops completely and they come together and stand with the SP:

• Areas with less than 20% Muslim population: Here 74% Muslim votes went to SP and 14% to BJP.
• Areas with 20 to 30% Muslim population: Here 80% Muslim votes went directly to the account of Samajwadi Party and BJP got only 4% votes.
• Areas with more than 40% Muslim population: Here a record 94% Muslim votes went entirely to SP, while BJP got only 4% votes. Akhilesh Yadav’s new political and election game plan is surrounded by these complications.