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New Delhi: India’s affluent consumer base is projected to grow more than fourfold over the next decade and could overtake China’s by 2036, according to a report by NielsenIQ (NIQ) and World Data Lab. The report estimates that India will have around 10.8 crore affluent consumers by 2036, compared with 10.3 crore in China.

The projection points to a major shift in India’s consumer economy, driven by rising spending power, population growth and the expansion of the middle class. However, the report’s definition of an affluent consumer is based on daily spending rather than income or wealth, making it important to understand what the numbers actually represent.

India could add 8.2 crore affluent consumers

India is estimated to have around 2.6 crore affluent consumers in 2026. By 2036, this number is projected to rise to 10.8 crore, representing an addition of approximately 8.2 crore consumers over the decade.

China, meanwhile, is expected to add around 6.2 crore affluent consumers during the same period. Its affluent consumer population is projected to increase to 10.3 crore by 2036.

If the projections hold, India would therefore marginally surpass China in the number of consumers belonging to this category.

What is an affluent consumer?

The term “affluent consumer” in the report does not simply mean someone who is rich or has a high net worth.

NIQ and World Data Lab classify an affluent consumer as someone who spends more than $90 a day. The measure is therefore based on daily consumption expenditure rather than salary, total wealth or the value of assets owned.

This distinction is important because the projected 10.8 crore figure should not be interpreted as India having 10.8 crore wealthy individuals.

Instead, it represents the projected number of people who cross the report’s spending threshold.

India’s core consumer base is much larger

India’s affluent consumers form only one part of the country’s broader consumer market.

The report estimates that India has around 64.9 crore core consumers in 2026. This group is defined as people spending between $13 and $90 a day and is separate from the affluent category.

The expansion of both groups could significantly change the country’s consumption patterns over the coming decade.

As more people move into higher spending brackets, businesses could see stronger demand for products and services ranging from automobiles and electronics to travel, financial services, healthcare and premium consumer goods.

India could see the world’s biggest increase

Among the countries highlighted in the report, India is projected to record the largest increase in affluent consumers between 2026 and 2036.

The country is expected to add 8.2 crore people to this category, compared with China’s projected increase of 6.2 crore.

The United States is expected to continue having the world’s largest affluent consumer population in 2036, with a projected 23.1 crore people in the category.

Germany is projected to have 3.2 crore affluent consumers, followed by Japan with 3 crore, the UK with 2.7 crore and Brazil with 2.3 crore.

Global affluent consumer population also rising

The increase is not limited to India.

Globally, the affluent consumer population is projected to rise from 65.7 crore in 2026 to 102.5 crore in 2036.

The growth reflects a broader increase in consumer spending power across several emerging and developed economies.

However, India’s projected growth stands out because of the scale of the country’s population and the expected expansion of its middle and higher-spending consumer groups.

India classified as a volume growth market

The report describes India as a “volume growth” market, with its expanding population and middle class expected to support consumption growth.

As more consumers gain greater spending capacity, businesses could benefit from a wider customer base.

The shift could also change what consumers buy. While some newly affluent households may focus on premium products, others may prioritise affordability and practical value.

This creates opportunities for companies across different price segments rather than only luxury brands.

Premium products may see greater demand

The expected increase in affluent consumers could create a larger market for premium and aspirational products.

Consumers with greater spending power may increasingly look for products that offer better quality, convenience or status.

This could benefit sectors such as premium automobiles, smartphones, appliances, travel, financial services and branded consumer goods.

However, companies cannot assume that consumers will automatically choose the most expensive option.

Value for money remains important

The report highlights an important characteristic of consumers moving into higher spending categories.

Among “upgrade consumers” surveyed, 60% said they focus on value for money, while 46% said they are willing to pay for convenience.

This suggests that greater purchasing power does not necessarily eliminate price sensitivity.

Consumers may be willing to spend more when they can clearly see the additional value offered by a product or service.

For companies, this means premiumisation will need to be supported by tangible benefits rather than simply higher prices.

Consumers may still trade down

Even consumers with greater purchasing power can change their spending behaviour.

According to the report, consumers who are willing to pay more may still choose cheaper alternatives when the premium offered by a product is unclear or when a lower-priced option meets their needs.

This could force brands to focus more strongly on product quality, customer experience and differentiation.

For India’s increasingly competitive consumer market, the ability to demonstrate value could become as important as targeting affluent households.

Affluent consumers have significant spending power

The importance of affluent consumers becomes clearer when their contribution to global spending is considered.

Although they represent a much smaller population than the estimated 410 crore core consumers globally in 2026, affluent consumers are projected to account for around $35.9 trillion in spending this year.

By comparison, the much larger core-consumer group is projected to account for $31.6 trillion.

This highlights why businesses and investors are closely watching the growth of higher-spending consumer groups.

Rising prices add another dimension

The projections come against a backdrop of significant increases in consumer prices.

According to NIQ, global fast-moving consumer goods prices increased by 26% between 2021 and 2025.

As prices rise, higher spending figures do not necessarily translate directly into a proportional increase in real purchasing power.

Therefore, India’s projected expansion in affluent consumers will need to be assessed alongside inflation, income growth and changes in household expenditure.

What it means for Indian businesses

The expected rise in affluent consumers could create opportunities across a wide range of industries.

Companies may increasingly target consumers looking for premium versions of everyday products, better convenience and improved experiences.

At the same time, India’s huge core-consumer segment means mass-market products will continue to remain important.

Businesses may therefore need to adopt a multi-segment strategy, offering affordable products for value-conscious consumers while developing premium offerings for households with higher spending capacity.

A potential shift in India’s consumption story

India’s consumption story has traditionally been closely linked to its large population and expanding middle class.

The latest projection suggests that the next phase could involve a significant increase in the number of consumers capable of spending at affluent levels.

If the forecast materialises, the country could become one of the world’s most important markets for companies seeking long-term consumer growth.

The scale of the projected increase also means India’s influence on global consumer trends could grow substantially over the next decade.

Projections are not guarantees

Despite the positive outlook, the figures are projections rather than guaranteed outcomes.

The report’s estimates are based on available data, historical trends and assumptions about future economic and consumer developments. Actual consumer numbers in 2036 could therefore differ from the current forecast.

Factors such as economic growth, inflation, employment, income distribution and demographic changes could influence the trajectory.

Therefore, the projection should be viewed as an indication of India’s potential rather than a certainty.

Conclusion

India’s affluent consumer population could rise from around 2.6 crore in 2026 to 10.8 crore by 2036, according to the NIQ and World Data Lab report. This would put India slightly ahead of China’s projected 10.3 crore affluent consumers.

The projected growth reflects the expansion of India’s consumer economy and rising spending capacity. However, the definition of an affluent consumer is based on spending of more than $90 a day, rather than income or net worth.

For businesses, the trend could create significant opportunities in premium and aspirational categories. Yet consumers are still expected to remain conscious of value, meaning brands will need to offer clear benefits for higher prices.

If the projections materialise, India’s expanding affluent consumer class could become one of the biggest drivers of the country’s consumption story over the next decade.