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Export value, however, fell by 11.2% due to lower prices, according to the Vietnam Coffee Cocoa Association.

The EU and the US continue to be the main export markets for Vietnamese coffee. Meanwhile, several Asian markets, particularly China, are emerging as new growth drivers for the industry.

Nguyen Nam Hai, the association’s chairman, said Vietnamese coffee has ample opportunities to accelerate growth in both volume and prices in the final months of the year.

Coffee prices are forecast to be supported by several factors. Climate change and heavy rainfall have delayed harvesting in Brazil while the El Niño weather phenomenon, heatwaves and drought are expected to affect Asia in late 2026 and 2027, potentially impacting coffee production and supply. Low inventory levels are another supporting factor.

The European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will officially take effect on Dec. 30, except for small and micro enterprises.

The association said this presents an opportunity for Vietnamese coffee to boost exports, amid the relatively low level of compliance among some other producing countries.

Export growth in the coming period will depend heavily on the ability to meet sustainability standards, particularly the EUDR, alongside efforts to increase deep processing and improve product quality.

Many buyers are focusing on purchasing EUDR-compliant Vietnamese coffee for contracts to be signed from October.

This could help increase export volume by 8-10%. In particular, EUDR-compliant shipments are expected to command prices of around $50 per tonne, higher than conventional coffee.

Hai said global demand for deeply processed products is growing strongly. They are therefore also expected to become a key driver helping the industry work towards its target of $9 billion in coffee exports this year.

However, he noted that the market is also facing developments that could push prices down. According to forecasts by the US Department of Agriculture, coffee production in major producing countries is generally expected to increase in the 2026-2027 crop year compared with 2025-2026.

Global coffee supply is estimated at around 189 million bags, while consumption in major markets such as the U.S. and Europe is expected to stand at only around 179 million bags, leaving a surplus of 10 million bags that could drive down prices.