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Britain's homeowners are facing a potential bill shock of more than £280 a month if a worst-case inflation scenario materialises, new analysis warns.

Research by Moneyfacts suggests a so-called "Trumpflation" surge - linked to global turmoil and an escalation in the Iran conflict - could drive borrowing costs sharply higher, leaving households thousands of pounds worse off. Under the bleakest outlook modelled alongside scenarios from the Bank of England, a typical borrower with a £250,000 mortgage over 25 years could see annual repayments jump by £3,380 - equivalent to about £281 extra every month.

That would take yearly costs to £20,724, compared with £17,346 before the recent geopolitical tensions flared.

The warning comes as experts say mortgage rates tend to sit around 1.5 to 1.75 percentage points above the Bank's base rate - meaning any spike in inflation feeds quickly into higher borrowing costs.

Moneyfacts' analysis sets out three possible scenarios:

A more benign outcome would see energy prices fall back quickly, with inflation peaking at 3.6% before dropping below 3% next year. Mortgage rates could settle between 5% and 5.5%, limiting the pain to as little as £150 a year - though still higher than before the conflict.

The central case, currently seen as most likely by markets, assumes inflation sticks around longer at about 3.7%. Mortgage rates would hover between 5.5% and 6%, leaving borrowers paying £1,050 to £1,950 more annually.

But the worst-case scenario paints a far more alarming picture. If oil prices remain above $120 a barrel, inflation could surge to 6.2% and force base rates up to around 5.25%.

That would push typical mortgage rates towards 6.75% - triggering the £3,000-plus annual hit.

Adam French, head of consumer finance at Moneyfacts, said the gap between best and worst outcomes is "brutal" for households.

He warned: "The Bank of England's 'Trumpflation' stress scenarios lay bare just how damaging the economic repercussion of the Iran conflict could become."

He warned that persistently high oil prices could force central bankers into aggressive rate rises, feeding directly into mortgage costs.

Moneyfacts analysis showed that mortgage rates typically sit 1.5 to 1.75 percentage points above Bank rate. So an increase in Bank rate to 5.25% would put average homeowner borrowing costs above 6.5% in a worst-case scenario.

Mr French said: "That would translate into an increase of more than £3,000 a year for many borrowers - a devastating hit to affordability."

Borrowers are not powerless, however. Experts say many lenders allow homeowners to lock in a new mortgage deal up to six months before their current fix ends. This can act as insurance against further rate rises - while still allowing borrowers to switch if deals improve.

Some may also consider extending their mortgage term to reduce monthly repayments, although this increases the total interest paid over time. With uncertainty hanging over inflation and global energy markets, analysts warn that staying proactive could make a difference to household finances in the months ahead.