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Vinicius Junior had a golden opening at Arsenal, but it now appears he will continue in the same lane at Real Madrid.

Do you know when it became truly clear that the sun was going down on Trent Alexander-Arnold’s Liverpool career? It was not the transfer speculation, the fist-pumping after big matches or even his silence over his future — it was the repeated talk about individual honours. “I want to be the first right-back to win the Ballon d'Or,” he told FourFourTwo in an exclusive interview, before repeating that ambition when he signed for Real Madrid.

But really, where is the logic in that? Why would you join Real Madrid in order to stand out? Eight Los Blancos players have won the award — more than any other club — and in the modern era, voters usually gather around a star from the side that has won the Champions League. Yet, as 2024 showed dramatically, that is also where team-mates can split the vote. Although he had scored in that year’s Champions League final, Vinicius Junior would have beaten Rodri comfortably had he picked up the votes that went to team-mate Dani Carvajal. The fact that Jude Bellingham was also in the conversation that year only made matters even more complicated.

It is the same point that Real Madrid president Florentino Perez failed to understand with the Super League: if everyone is absolutely enormous, then no one is. And now Vinicius himself seems to have stepped into that very trap.

Nor is this only about the Ballon d'Or. With goals in two Champions League finals, it would be absurdly churlish to suggest that Vinicius has been anything other than a huge success at Real Madrid. He has risen to a level where he is viewed, if not as the best left winger in the world, then certainly as one of the small handful of footballers on the planet whose transfer situation can generate this kind of interest. He is a superstar at the highest level. He is special. But there is a fair argument that the best of his time in Madrid has already happened. And it happened before Kylian Mbappe arrived. You can use the numbers to back that up, and we will. Vini averaged more than 60 touches per 90 minutes alongside Karim Benzema, but that figure dropped into the 50s when playing next to Mbappe. The goals have dipped slightly as well... but frankly, Vinicius will already know that himself, with his own club having carried out detailed analysis on which side best suits his profile. His output has gone down — but not dramatically — because he is still an elite footballer. And, much like most things at the Bernabeu, nobody will spend too much time worrying about nerdy numbers.

But the obvious reality is that this is no longer Vinicius Junior’s club. This is Kylian Mbappe FC now: another left-sided winger-striker hybrid, pursued by Real for so long that they seemingly gave little thought to how he would fit with the superstar they already had in-house. When everybody is massive, nobody is — and Vini learned that to his frustration last season, when Xabi Alonso took him off in the Clasico. That is not to say Vinicius is no longer a major figure in Madrid: he clearly remains one, as his new contract will “reflect his status”. Even so, the wording of that phrase still suggests that Mbappe is the main man.

If it comes to that, perhaps Jude Bellingham is also above him in the pecking order, given that he offers more without the ball. Football is changing. Having two players like Vini and Mbappe is now seen as a throwback to the Galacticos, with Madrid having endured two trophyless seasons and serious questions being asked about who will step up and do the work out of possession. Jose Mourinho may yet be Florentino Perez’s final throw of the dice — one last attempt to conquer Europe again through aura alone — after bringing in an actual tactician in Alonso did not work. And while Real Madrid can never be written off, this really did feel like the ideal moment for a clean break for everyone involved. Mourinho needs 10 players to run themselves into the ground for Mbappe. Vinicius has already achieved everything at Real and does not have much left to prove there — or to a manager who asked, “Why celebrate like that?” when Vinicius Junior was allegedly racially abused by one of his own players. Los Blancos were looking at receiving a nine-figure fee for a player who arguably creates more tactical problems than he solves. It would have been a statement that nobody is untouchable in this new regime.

Ousmane Dembele faced a similar dilemma. The Frenchman was signed by Barcelona to serve Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez; then he moved to Paris Saint-Germain and, not unlike Vini, was reduced to being Mbappe’s sidekick. As soon as he was given a stage of his own, he flourished. He delivered a club’s first Champions League and instantly wrote himself into that team’s history as a legend. He won the Ballon d'Or and immediately assumed greater importance for his country, having been substituted in the first half of the 2022 World Cup final. Dembele is not only a better player than he had ever been before; he is a bigger player as well, because he has had the time and space to stand out on his own, away from other stars. Vinicius could have had a similar transformation at Arsenal: a side built to play for him, with arguably the best out-of-possession structure in world football to cover for him. The Gunners reached the Champions League final without a killer centre-forward — arguably without any A-list star at all — and Vini had the chance to become that figure. He could have become the face of the biggest league in the world.

And if Arsenal were to win the Champions League, the player who won it for them would become a shoo-in for the Ballon d'Or. Winning it remains a big if — but it becomes a little less daunting when you have a player like that in your side. Instead, Vini has chosen the same route Rodrygo took last summer, when he was reportedly offered a way out of Madrid: to remain one among several superstars in a team that will always place other names first. A team in the middle of a rebuild and not especially patient when it comes to transition. A team whose grand plan to reclaim the Champions League now appears to rest on post-Fenerbahce Mourinho. It would have been good to see a little bravery, at the very least. The next time he considers leaving Spain, the interest in him may not be quite so huge.