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Global oil prices remained mostly unchanged on Tuesday following a three-day decline, as traders weighed fresh concerns over supply surplus against potential disruptions in Russian crude exports.

The market appears to be stabilising after both benchmark contracts dropped more than 1 per cent in the previous session to settle at their lowest level in a week, reported Reuters. Around 6 AM, Brent crude futures were flat at $68.76 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped slightly by 2 cents, or 0.03 per cent, to $66.27 per barrel.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners, collectively known as OPEC+, have contributed significantly to the current sentiment by deciding to further increase oil output in September. The group, which supplies nearly half the world’s oil, has been easing production curbs this year to reclaim lost market share after years of cutbacks aimed at supporting prices.

OPEC+ Accelerates Output Hike Despite Oversupply Fears

In its latest policy move, OPEC+ announced on Sunday that it will boost production by 547,000 barrels per day (bpd) for the month of September. This move is seen as a continuation of the group’s efforts to roll back its historic output reductions, which once amounted to around 2.5 million bpd — equivalent to about 2.4 per cent of global oil demand.

However, analysts remain sceptical that the full volume of oil will actually return to the market in the short term, given the logistical and infrastructural constraints that some producers may face. The decision has nonetheless intensified fears of an oversupplied market, adding downward pressure on prices.

US Pressure on Russian Oil Buyers Sparks Fresh Supply Jitters

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions are adding another layer of complexity to the oil market outlook. The United States has stepped up pressure on India to curb its imports of Russian oil, as Washington continues to explore leverage against Moscow to reach a resolution in the Ukraine conflict.

US President Donald Trump has threatened secondary sanctions — including a potential 100 per cent tariff — on countries purchasing Russian crude. This follows a 25 per cent tariff on Indian imports introduced in July.

India, currently the largest importer of seaborne Russian oil, purchased approximately 1.75 million bpd from January to June this year — a modest 1 per cent increase from the same period last year, according to data shared with Reuters by trade sources.

"India has become a major buyer of the Kremlin's oil since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Any disruption to those purchases would force Russia to find alternative buyers from an increasingly small group of allies," noted Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ, in a research note.

In addition to concerns over Russian supply routes, traders are also keeping a close watch on the evolving US tariff landscape. New levies on key trading partners could dampen global economic activity, posing a threat to fuel demand growth in the months ahead.